Tuesday 26/03/19

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The Fed meet on Wednesday released a new forecast for no rate hikes this year from two previously. But the market had been already been pricing in six basis points of an ease for this year. After the meeting it moved to price in 19 additional basis points, or at least one 25 basis point cut this year.

Market discountin 25 or 50 basis point cut in FED rate this year.

As per our expectation this is very good news for Emerging Markets like India.

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FII Buy Rs.27000 cr Indian Equity till

1st March -- 22nd March!!!!

1. Slowdown in all World's Big Economy.

2.US Fed stop rate hike due to slowdown.

3.Expected stable govt in India.

4.Expected big earning out performance in coming years.

5. Indian economy expected to cross $ 5 trillion in next 5 to 7 year.

6.Crude price cool off.

7. Money chase growth

8.TINA factor attract FII

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(ONLY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE )


The Indian chemicals sector is a market worth about $160 billion, with specialty chemicals representing about 20 per cent of the value. We expect the specialty chemical sector to grow by about 10 per cent annually to almost double the market size by FY25 driven by growth in end-user industries.

Global chemical inds currently estimated around $4.5 TN . Indin chemical market is just 3.5% world chemical market. As per our expectation in Next 10 year Indian chemical market easly surpass 7% of world 's chemical marrket. Indian chemical market growing around 10 to 15% against world 3% growth

If Indiam chemical market achieved this Chemical market of india cross $400billion from current $160B & specility chemical market cross $80B

Current market size on Indian specility chemical industry around $32B.

The implementation of strict environmental norms in China has reduced competitive advantages for Chinese firms, especially inefficient smaller firms that became unviabl.Due to shutdown in China Industry global supply of chemical tight.

In 2017, an estimated 40 per cent of the chemical manufacturing capacity in China was temporarily shut down for safety inspections, with over 80,000 manufacturing units charged and fined for breaching permissible emission limits. The ratings firm expects the supply of major chemicals from China to remain subdued in FY19, favourably impacting volume and pricing for Indian exporters.

The consumption and penetration levels of specialty chemicals very low in India. Aginst world level.

More End Use demand With increased GDP, Indian middle class household is expected to grow to 150 million by 2030 from 30 million in year 2008. Urban population is expected to increase by 300 million people by 2030, leading to a consumption led double digit growth in key market.

Compared to countries like USA or China, the current penetration of specialty chemicals is low .With an increased focus, improved products and customer awareness, the use of specialty chemicals will increase.

Major Industries driving the growth of Specialty Chemicals

Indian focus of small cars is changing to midlevel cars, thereby increasing demands. Current production of automotive is growing on the average at 10-11%. The need for components, using such coatings is also increasing (current production of approx. 2million cars, 3million 2/3 wheeler, 0.3million LCV/HCV )

Most of global majors are present in India, therefore, related TIER I and II vendors. These companies follow norms of rest of the world, making it mandatory for others to follow.

Automotive Component export is a major segment of user industry, using specialty chemicals to meet the production standards of rest of the world.

Construction industry is growing at approx.15% annually, to be recognized as an industry worth US$ 115 bn by end of year2018 . Specialty chemicals account for only 0.5% of total construction spends as compared to a possible 1%, which is the norm in developed economies (paints, coating material, reinforcing fibers, admixtures and others item). The key factor is, to have/developing products and adopting advanced coating, ceiling and reinforcing material like polyurethane base coating, silicon and polymer based re enforcing materia

The demand for water is growing repidly , thereby putting pressure on availability of water for irrigation, drinking and industrial use. many Chemicals for conserving this resource seem to be on priority list. Recycling/conservation of water has become a must. Water treatment chemicals for reducing in-process industrial applications, to reduce BOD /COD, disinfecting water for potable purpose offers potential beyond doubts.

Indians are able to spend more on hygiene and personal care products. Increasing demand for wide range of cosmetic chemicals, health care products and well as hygiene products using specialty chemicals , polymers and oleo chemicals. This segment’s growth is expected to surpass the growth of other segments.

With the growth of demand, in both domestic and export market for textiles, the chemicals like dyes and pigments offer never reducing requirements. Big growth expected in this sector also.

This segment has immense potential for growth, driven by growing end user industry. Technology & Innovation will play a major role in growth. India has a large pool of English speaking technical man – power as well as scientists and researchers.

The nature of specialty chemical industry is very complex and therefore, while valuation, this must be considered. This industry provides stable margins in stark contrast to basic chemical industry. Specialty chemicals do not go through the stringent regulatory approvals, as in case of pharma, agrochemicals or food industry but supplies critical material used in these industries. These small volume/high value products contribute a small percentage to the total cost, enjoying a high level of client’s stickines.

As per our advance estimate specility chemical industry may become major mege trend for next decade .

RISK:----------------

1.Significant appreciation in Indian Currency could impact growth as competitive advantages . Rupee appreciation to effect growth.

2. Slowdown in growth on user industry such as paints and coatings, specialty polymers, construction chemicals etc. could impact the overall growth for the sector.Any slowdown in consumption boom also effect.

3. Strict Pollution norm. Any further tightening of norms by either Government or State Pollution Control Bodies will call for further investments, which may have a negative impact on the industry.

YESSSSSSSSS

 

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Kirti Scripscan Research...

What To Do Today..........

Our Opininon for Today's Market.......

1.F&O expiry near.

2.Stock specific movement expected.

Credit Access Grameen

( BSE Ticker -541770@ Rs.470/-)

TARGET

Rs.520/- Rs.550/- SL Rs.420/-

 

AXIS

HDFC BANK

( BSE Ticker -500180@ Rs.2282/-)

TARGET

Rs.2370/- Rs.2400/- SL Rs.2200/-

 

 

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TGT...........

NOTE: All above article is not an investment advice. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational and based on external analysis and we do not warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future.

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Alert:- Past performance not gurantee of futrue performance. Only for information

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GENERAL RISK WARNING


The financial services provided by this website carry a high level of risk and can result in the loss of all your funds. You should never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

Anand Kumar Tantia is an independent research analyst not an Investment Adviser. Information herein should be regarded as a resource only and should be used at one's own risk. This is not an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities and Equity. Anand Kumar Tantia will not be liable for any losses incurred or investment(s) made or decisions taken or not taken based on the information provided herein. Information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual subscribers. Before acting on any recommendation, subscribers should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary.

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