Thursday 17/04/2014

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Foreign brokerage CLSA has said the Sensex is poised to gain 75 per cent through 12-24 months, on a technical basis. A 75 per cent jump in the benchmark index could take it to 40,000-levels.

"A technical view of the recent breakout of Indian markets to new highs is that of a signal that the long-term uptrend off the 2003 low is resuming. This implies an upside target for the BSE Sensex of 39,707 (+75 per cent) through the next 12 to 24 months," CLSA said in its India strategy report authored by analysts Mahesh Nandurkar, Laurence Balanco and Abhinav Sinha. At current levels (21,483-22,023), however, the Sensex could see a temporary dip of three-five per cent, an attractive buying opportunity, the report added.

On a fundamental basis, too, the brokerage expects Indian markets to do well. It expects the Sensex to give compounded annual returns of about 15 per cent through the next two years. "We are looking at more gradual market gains...15 per cent…over a two-year period; largely in line with the earnings growth; a possibility of 5-10 per cent re-rating exists as earnings upgrades unfold from the second half of FY15," the report said.

The brokerage's fundamental and technical points of view converge on the sectors expected to lead the Sensex's uptrend. The report said the common 'buy' ideas pointed to a recovery led by domestic cyclicals. The broking firm is bullish on stocks such as L&T, State Bank of India (SBI), Maruti, GAIL, HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries and has recommended buying these stocks.

"Larsen, Maruti and SBI are already up 20-47 per cent up on expectations of a cyclical recovery. Within these three, Larsen and Maruti's valuations are close to 10-year historical averages, while SBI is at a 30 per cent discount," the report said

As two of India’s largest information technology (IT) services companies announced their financial results on consecutive days, the contrast between their tones was quite striking. While Infosys Technologies was more focused on “ramp-downs” and “continued pressure” in its post-result press conference on Tuesday, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) the next day talked more about how “2014-15 will be much better than 2013-14.

TCS posted a 48.2 per cent rise in net profit for the quarter ended March 31 (according to Indian generally-accepted accounting principles, or GAAP), in line with the Street’s expectations. Its consolidated revenue rose 31.2 per cent over the year-ago quarter to Rs 21,551 crore

The southwest monsoon is likely to be below normal in 2014 because of the evolving El Niño, a warming of the Pacific Ocean that upsets weather patterns across the globe, according to a forecast issued on Tuesday by a leading private meteorological agency, Skymet

The official monsoon forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is due on April 25.

Rain during the four months of monsoon in India beginning June is expected to be 94 per cent of the average of the past 50 years, called long-period average. Monsoon rain in the range of 96-100 per cent of the long-period average is considered normal. Overall, there is a 40 per cent chance of rain being below normal in 2014, a 34 per cent chance of a normal monsoon, a 25-per cent chance of a drought and a one-per cent chance of rain being above normal.


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